Described below is the summary of Q&A session with institutional investors and securities analysts at the FY2023 2Q results conference call held on November 17, 2023.
- Q1 With respect to your recent decision on share buybacks, what discussions did you have and how did you make the decision while facing the price-fixing issue? Given your current ESR level, it seems you could execute share buybacks worth more than JPY20bn. What is your view?
- A1
With respect to share buybacks, we disclosed the following policy at the beginning of the year: “As for the capital level adjustments in the fiscal year 2023, the Company, given the current capital level, plans to repurchase its own shares of 100 billion yen within the fiscal year 2023 in a flexible manner, fully considering market environment, stock prices and other factors.” Based on this policy, we have flexibly reviewed our plan and increased the amount of share buybacks to JPY120bn, comprehensively considering one-off profit from the Group reorganization, M&A projects currently in the pipeline and other factors, in addition to our ESR as of September 30, 2023.
- Q2Can we separate the issues you are currently facing from shareholder returns when considering them for the next period onward?
- A2
Yes, you can. The next fiscal year coincides with the first year of the next medium-term business plan and we will present the plan’s details in May next year. As part of the plan, we will disclose our shareholder return policy. Our current thought is to maintain the existing policy. In other words, we do not plan to make significant change to the policy that positions dividends at the basis of shareholder returns and aims to continue raising DPS as we increase our five-year average adjusted net income, which is the source of dividend payment, on the back of the world’s top-class EPS growth. With respect to capital level adjustments, we also do not plan to make significant change to our existing policy, which is executing M&A and risk-taking projects if they contribute to raising our corporate value and ROE and implementing share buybacks if there is no such opportunity.
- Q3Your revised top-line growth projection for North America is 3.3%. Although this is greater than the projection you made at the beginning of the year, it seems to remain weaker compared with your peers. What is the reason behind it? Similarly, what is the reason for the weak projected business unit profit growth of 1.1% in North America?
- A3
There is no change to the premise that we continue focusing on bottom-line instead of pursuing top-line growth at any cost. Bearing this in mind, the revised projection mainly reflects the impact of rate declines in some specialty items such as D&O to a certain degree, although the overall market has continued to harden more than we expected at the beginning of the year and our current top-line results are overperforming our original projections. Our 3Q preliminary local top-line figures are above the revised projections. If this continues, the full-year result will exceed the revised projection. Meanwhile, the reasons for the low level of the revised business unit profit projection for North America include the impact of a capital loss at DFG as well as the inclusion of losses from wildfires in Hawaii in the total amount of entire North America.
- Q4What is a network system providing designated workshop information to customers?
- A4
Under the existing designated workshop system, we refer our customers to a workshop that has satisfied our selection criteria. Given that each workshop has different characteristics, however, we are thinking of introducing a scheme where we will disclose their information to our customers and let them choose a workshop from multiple options. We intend to create a structure that will provide services that can satisfy our customers’ needs.
- Q5According to your analysis, what was the true cause of the fraudulent insurance claim case caused by BIGMOTOR?
- A5
In the existing non-life insurance claim assessment process, we have assessed each claim rigorously, but have never expected that anyone would purposely falsify damage. As a result, we could not detect the malignant and systematic way claims were made fraudulently. Based on this incident, we have already begun reviewing and enhancing our assessment process. The original purpose of the designated workshop system was to ensure that clients receive high quality services from the excellent workshops we refer them to. However, there were cases of barter where auto liability insurance policies were purchased from insurers in return for the insurers referring their clients to repair workshops. We are reviewing the designated workshop system from the perspective of customers and have already asked workshop agents to review their scheme if their insurance purchases can be directly linked to workshop referrals.
- Q6Why are additional provisions for CECL and ADC reserves included in the full-year projection on a normalized basis (rather than excluding them as one-off factors)? Does this mean that there are concerns that these provisions may be needed in the next period?
- A6
When calculating profit based on a normalized basis, we exclude items that we clearly consider one-off. As for CECL, although we do not have a definite concern that additional provisioning will be necessary in the next period, we do not clearly see it as one-off either. That is why we include it in the normalized basis profit, which is a launch pad for the next period. This reflects our view that we are not optimistic and that we need to continue closely monitoring the situation. Regarding ADC, the situation has slightly developed from August and the outstanding limit stands at around USD70mn, which will be the maximum amount. We similarly do not have a specific concern about additional provisioning in the next period, but do not clearly consider it one-off. This is why we also included it in the normalized basis profit.
- Q7What do you think about the sustainability of your investment income when interest rates start falling in the future?
- A7
Regarding investment income, while we do not know where US interest rates will settle, we are working on forward-looking portfolio reshuffling. In addition, given that our insurance business is performing strongly and that this will grow our AUM, we consider that we will be able to steadily maintain investment income for the time being.
- Q8What progress have you recently made in the profit improvement of corporate fire insurance and what is the outlook for the next period? Have you made any progress in profit improvement efforts despite the price-fixing issue?
- A8
To stably offer insurance as social infrastructure, we need to maintain and grow profitability. We consider that setting appropriate premiums in a timely manner forms the basis of this. Excluding one-off effects such as wildfires in Hawaii, our profit improvement efforts are currently progressing as planned. However, we still need to improve the profitability of both corporate and household fire insurance and will continue implementing measures such as premium revisions and measures to achieve performance targets as planned.
- Q9Can we think that the price-fixing issue will not have any specific impact on your performance?
- A9
While an investigation by a special investigation committee consisting of multiple external lawyers is underway, we have not at this stage revised our performance due to this incident.
- Q10In the future, will problems arise such as deterioration in the management of car repair workshops due to inflation making it impossible to secure appropriate repair charges or companies questioning the appropriateness of quotes provided by insurance companies when purchasing insurance? Can you say that there will be no medium- or long-term impact on your performance?
- A10
On the first question, the impact of the deteriorating performance of repair workshops on our performance, parts prices and labor charges are both increasing due to inflation. On labor charges, we are adopting a scheme to set labor charges in keeping with the rising inflation and we have raised labor charges appropriately through dialogues with workshops. On its impact on the profit/loss status of auto insurance, for instance, if labor charges increase by about 2.8% in line with the BOJ’s CPI forecast, this will have an impact of approximately JPY3bn on insurance payments. On the second question, concerns about fire insurance, it is important that we steadily implement measures to achieve performance targets. As the current situation anyhow demands profit improvement, we will continue offering stable insurance coverage while gaining an understanding from policyholders through detailed explanations so that there will be no impact on our profit improvement efforts.
- Q11As the price-fixing issue becomes normalized, could there emerge more differentiation among non-life insurers?
- A11
As it was mentioned earlier, a special investigation committee consisting of multiple external lawyers is continuing an investigation. We consider it important to identify the true cause of the incident, instead of merely investigating individual cases. There could be different impacts on the performance of each company depending on the nature of recurrence prevention measures taken to address the identified cause. It is therefore difficult to answer a hypothetical question at this stage.
- Q12On capital losses in North America, can you please explain how big the loss on CRE loans is and what actions you are taking at present?
- A12
Our recent projection for capital losses in North America is JPY59bn greater than the projection we made at the beginning of the year partly due to additional provisioning for CECL reserves. This figure can be broken down into JPY9bn of impairment losses, JPY31bn of losses on CECL, and others such as losses on sales. The main asset class is CRE loans, for which we expect impairment losses to increase by JPY11bn and losses on CECL by JPY25bn in comparison with the projection that we made at the start of the year. On the other hand, a significant portion of these capital losses are offset by an upswing in investment income. The increase in capital losses on CRE loans mainly reflects the longer-than-expected interest rate rises and the weaker market conditions of the office sector due to the widespread adoption of teleworking. Despite these conditions, we have been able to secure a high level of returns, even factoring in capital losses, utilizing our ability to identify superior investments. We will continue making investments based on careful selection and robust monitoring and risk management.
- Q13On the momentum of underwriting profit in North America, I want to reconfirm the background of the strong rate environment. Also, what is your projection for the next and subsequent periods?
- A13
Currently, some lines are experiencing the resurging of premium rates mainly due to the hardening of the reinsurance market after Hurricane Ian and the rise in loss cost due to inflation. We cannot make a definitive statement about the next and subsequent periods, but we expect the US commercial market will continue hardening for a while. In terms of the color of business lines, while Property continues to be strong, Specialty is mixed depending on lines. More specifically, D&O and cyber are somewhat weak, but Liability is strong. We intend to continue executing rate increases while practicing disciplined underwriting and monitoring the loss cost trend.
- Q14What is the management’s evaluation of the 2Q results and full-year projections? Can you say that both are strong given that you have only made small revisions to your plan despite capital losses in North America and many natural catastrophes?
- A14
When expanding business globally, various things happen in small and large scales and events happening anywhere can affect our performance. We have ardently pursued global risk diversification, especially in the last few years, and strongly promoted globally integrated group management utilizing the strengths of each company for the entire Group. We believe that we have gradually developed an awareness that, even if an issue arises somewhere, all regions and entities will make up for each other and complement each other, and that this has led to a certain level of business results and a track record. Going forward, we aim to enhance our growth and governance and to manage our businesses in a way that align in a straight line the strategies of HD and group companies, business results achieved through these strategies, and contribution to stakeholders who support Tokio Marine. We believe that this is slowly happening. It is our view that Tokio Marine is generally getting stronger and occupies a position that differs from the past.
These information materials are prepared based on the currently available information for us and described subject to our predictions and forecasts carried out at the time of preparation.
It must be noted that what is described therein does not guarantee our future business performance and carries certain risk of misjudgment or uncertainty.
Accordingly, you are kindly requested to bear in mind that there may be a possibility of sizable divergence between the actual business performance in the future and that of our predictions or forecasts described therein.
