Described below is the summary of Q&A session with institutional investors and securities analysts at the FY2017 results conference call held on May 18, 2018.
- Q1Please tell me why the rate increase of net premiums written of North America (excluding FX effects) ended in 5%, exceeding the original projection of 3%.
It exceeded the projection due to the progress of growth in each subsidiary. NPW of Philadelphia exceeded the projection both in new business book and renewal book, NPW of Delphi grew due to an increase in new business book of workers’ compensation reinsurance and large deductible workers’ compensation, and NPW of TMHCC grew due to bolt-on acquisition of medical stop-loss business and rate increases.
- Q2Net premiums written is projected to grow by 4% in North America and 5% in Reinsurance (excluding FX effects) in FY2018. How much do you project the impact of hardening would be?
It is hard to explain in one word because the situation depends on whether the contract is damaged or not, or whether it’s a direct underwriting or reinsurance, but reinsurance policies showed an average of a low single-digit increase in the January 2018 renewal. In addition, we considered the increase owing to the renewal of multi-year policies in reinsurance. Also, direct underwriting policies rate, mainly properties of developed countries, showed a low single-digit to middle single-digit range increase.
Regarding the capital policy, the expressions of capital level differ between within target range and over 210%. Does this mean you will move into action immediately for capital utility in the case the level exceeds the target range?
You’re right. We will give priority to business investment for growth and additional risk-taking, and shareholder return will be executed when there is no promising case, etc.
- Q4How did you decide the dividend of 180 yen in FY2018? Are there any changes in shareholder return policy?
We will explain our shareholder return policy during the new mid-term business plan at the IR meeting on May 25.
- Q5Adjusted net income in FY2017 increased approximately 26 billion yen compared with the revised projections. Please tell me the factor of this.
There are several factors but it’s mainly due to the takedown of deferred tax liabilities (excluding the takedown of DTL relating to other intangible fixed assets) associated with the U.S. tax reform.
- Q6You announced a share buy-back of 50 billion yen this time. How much is the shareholder return based on FY2017 results?
It depends on whether you see it on a repurchase year basis or on a decision made year basis, but we decided a 100 billion buy-back in November 2017 and a 50 billion buy-back in May 2018.
Am I right in thinking that “Implementation of business investment” in utilizing measures of capital buffer means M&A, and “risk-taking” means additional risk-taking in insurance and investment?
You’re right. As for the additional risk-taking, we will mainly execute profitable risks.
- Q8E/I loss ratio in Auto at TMNF in FY2018 is projected to worsen by 2.0pt YoY. This seems a little big, but could you tell me if there are other factors rather than rates cut in January 2018 and an increase in net incurred losses relating to riders?
The main factor is the impact of rates cut in January 2018 and an increase in net incurred losses relating to riders, but other factors also involved.
- Q8（2）How much did rates cut in January 2018 give effects?
Approximately 60% of the rate cuts impact is projected to be recognized in FY2018. We continuously see an increase in unit repair cost, so we will closely watch the situations going forward.
- Q9You announced a share buy-back of 50 billion yen this time. Is there a possibility to switch to special dividends explained before in the case stock price rises?
Basically, we do not consider changing the announced buy-backs to special dividends.
- Q10Why was ESR model modified in the New Mid-term Business Plan? Does this mean any changes in capital policy?
We modified the model for ease of comparability, etc. considering requests from the capital markets, and we don’t mean to change the way of thinking capital policy by this modification. Details of the capital policy during the New Mid-term Business Plan will be explained at the IR meeting on May 25.
- Q11Increase in MCEV is projected to decrease by 64 billion yen YoY at TMNL in FY2018. Please tell me the factor of this.
The reason why we are projecting 35 billion yen of increase in MCEV in FY2018, is because the impact of system expenses that respond to the increase of in-force policies and streamlining is projected to be about 30 billion yen. This doesn’t mean that the investment amount in a single fiscal year will be 30 billion yen. It’s due to the fact that MCEV calculation is based on the premise of incur expenses in the future.
- Q12Net investment income and other at Domestic non-life business in FY2018 is projected to decrease by 82.3 billion yen YoY. Since there remains difference even if you minus 47.7 billion yen, a decrease in dividends from overseas subsidiaries, are you projecting a decrease in sales of business-related equities?
We project a decrease in gains/losses on sales of securities and gains/losses on derivatives at TMNF. Sales of business-related equites of 100 billion is included in the FY2018 projection.
- Q13E/I loss ratio of Other at TMNF in FY2018 is projected to improve by 4.5%. Please tell me the factor of this.
We project the reversal effect of an increase of large and medium size losses in FY2017.
- Q14E/I loss ratio in Auto at TMNF in FY2018 is projected to be 62.8%. Please tell me the figures in excluding nat-cat basis.
Regarding E/I losses in FY2018, please understand that we do not disclose figures in excluding nat-cat basis. The impact of nat-cat in auto is projected to be almost the same level as FY2017.
These information materials are prepared based on the currently available information for us and described subject to our predictions and forecasts carried out at the time of preparation.
It must be noted that what is described therein does not guarantee our future business performance and carries certain risk of misjudgment or uncertainty.
Accordingly, you are kindly requested to bear in mind that there may be a possibility of sizable divergence between the actual business performance in the future and that of our predictions or forecasts described therein.