FY2016 2Q Results Conference Call Summary of Q&A
Described below is the summary of Q&A session with institutional investors and securities analysts at the FY2016 2Q results conference call held on November 18, 2016.
The changes in definitions in measurement method of MCEV had an impact on ESR. Excluding this impact, how much was ESR as of the end of September 2016?
As a result of the changes in definitions in measurement method of MCEV, an increase in net asset value had a positive impact on ESR by the same amount as explained on page 29 of “Overview of 2Q FY2016 Results and Full-Year Projections”, and a decrease in risk capital also had a positive impact on ESR. As we haven’t disclosed the details of risk capital, we appreciate your understanding on the non-disclosure of specific ESR level excluding the effects of changes in definitions in measurement method.
The revised projection of adjusted net income for FY2016 increased by 1 billion yen from the original projections. How much does the appreciation of the yen have an impact on it? In addition, is it right in thinking that the depreciation of the yen since October has positive impact on the projections?
We made the original projections based on FX rate at the end of March 2016 and the revised projections on the rate at the end of September 2016. Because of the appreciation of the yen in the time between, on financial accounting basis, profit in international insurance business decreased by approx. 14 billion yen while net income at TMNF increased by approx. 12 billion yen. On a full year basis, 1 yen appreciation brings positive impact of 1 billion yen to TMNF and negative impact of 1 billion yen to in international insurance business in terms of profit on financial accounting basis. However, on adjusted net income basis, since the effect of a decrease in amortization of intangible asset which was recognized at the time of acquisition is excluded, negative impact from the appreciation of the yen becomes larger. In case of the depreciation of the yen, the opposite occurs.
In domestic non-life business (TMNF), underwriting profit excluding the effect of catastrophe loss reserves, natural catastrophes and FX rate changes seems to increase by approx. 30 billion yen YoY. When we apply the same calculation for full year projections, YoY increase seemed to become approx. 39 billion yen. I would like to know the reason why the improvement is mainly in the 1H.
In the first half of FY2015, there was a downward pressure on profit owing to the last minutes demand for fire insurance before the product revision of long-term policies. On the contrary, the second half of FY2015 had positive factors such as light snowfall and favorable underwriting results in auto.
In international insurance business, how much natural catastrophe losses do you project in the revised projections? I would like to know the amount of natural catastrophe losses incurred in the first half as well as those incurred in the second half such as Hurricane Matthew.
We originally projected natural catastrophe losses to be approx. 47 billion yen before tax, and then revised downward to approx. 36 billion yen considering FX rate and fewer occurrences of natural disasters so far than expected. In the first half, natural catastrophe losses resulted in approx. 15.2 billion yen. With regards to Hurricane Matthew, we are now gathering the figures, but it seems to be some billions yen and within the range of losses projected for the second half.
Projection for consolidated net income was revised upward by 15 billion yen from the original projections. I would like to know the effect of FX rate on it. In addition, is it right to understand that the effect of FX rate is offset among business domains on consolidated basis and the effect remains only in the element of consolidation adjustments?
The effect of FX rate on consolidated net income is an increase of 12 billion yen at TMNF and a decrease of 12.5 billion yen in international insurance.
(Note added at the time of website release: Please refer to A2 regarding the FX effect on revised projections compared to the original projections)
- Q5. (2)
What is the impact of the FX rate to net incurred losses at TMNF?
- A5. (2)
In 2Q FY2016 results, amount of a decrease in provision for reserves for foreign currency denominated outstanding claims due to the appreciation of the yen is 10.2 billion yen before tax. As a result, net incurred losses in the revised full-year projections decreased by approx. 30 billion yen before tax from the original projections, of which approx. 10 billion yen is owing to the appreciation of the yen.
I think Typhoon No. 9 (Mindulle), No.10 (Lionrock), and No.16 (Malakas), and Kumamoto Earthquake were large-scale among domestic natural disasters incurred this fiscal year. How much loss do you project for each disaster?
Natural catastrophe losses in the first half is 39.4 billion yen in domestic non-life business. The breakdown is 12.7 billion yen for Kumamoto Earthquake, and below 10 billion yen for Typhoon No.9, No.10 and No.16 respectively.
I suppose the changes in definitions in measurement method of MCEV have an impact of approx. 8% on net asset value in calculating ESR and the total impact seems to be approx. 10% combined with approx. 2% on risk capital. Considering them, are there any changes in the target range of 100-130% of ESR? Further, I would like to know the relationship between ESR and share repurchase.
We think it is not necessary to change the target range of 100-130% of ESR even considering the changes in definitions in measurement method of MCEV. We announced to repurchase our shares up to 25 billion yen, which we decided based on a comprehensive assessment of ESR and market conditions, etc. This share repurchase has an impact of approx. 1% on ESR, however, we didn’t decide the amount to repurchase in order to bring ESR to just 130%. This 25 billion yen is a result of considering various factors as mentioned earlier.
Is it right to understand that the subordinated term loan financed at TMNL was decided to prepare for an increase in interest rates based on the so-called current restrictions under SolvencyⅠ? Besides, media reports that one of the objectives of the subordinated term loan is to prepare for overseas interest-rate hike as well. I would like to know your thoughts on diversification of asset management.
As you understand, TMNL funded through the subordinated term loan for preparing for the future interest-rate hike. It was decided based on forward-looking consideration to prepare for future interest-rate spike and diversification of investment. Regarding the diversification of investment, we are not thinking about aggressive investments large in size. For example, we don’t have an idea of any investment taking on FX risks.
As the Group’s ESR remains solid, is it necessary for TMNL to fund by subordinated term loan? In the event of any problem in the future, isn’t it enough to finance capital within the Group?
This subordinated term loan financed by TMNL aims for diversifying TMNL’s investment portfolio and taking precaution for interest-rate hike in future, therefore, we believe it is adequate to finance by TMNL. Moreover, capital increase by Tokio Marine Holdings will make flexible capital reconciliation more difficult when TMNL accumulates sufficient profit in the future. This is why TMNL funded through this subordinated term loan.
Companies in the Mitsubishi Group are currently unwinding their cross-shareholdings. Does this have any relation with the share repurchase the Company has just announced?
There is no special relation.
- Q10. (2)
You explained that the Company repurchases its own shares due to excess capital. I suppose the excess capital is increasing considering the market environment after September. Could we expect additional share repurchase in the future?
- A10. (2)
We can’t promise anything at present, because we decide the implementation of future share repurchase based on a comprehensive assessment of the level of ESR, market conditions, and business investment opportunities, etc. at the time of decision.
When I look at “Supplemental Data”, IBNR in auto at TMNF has decreased. What is the reason for it?
As you pointed out, IBNR in auto at TMNF has decreased. However, I would like you to view the trend of underwriting results in auto not only with considering INBR, but the total of net incurred losses which includes claims paid and outstanding claim reserves.
Mr. Donald Trump won the US election 2016 for President. What kind of impact will it have on your operation in the US?
We do not see any immediate and concrete effect on our North American business at present. Although Mr. Trump held up promises including a decrease in corporate tax rate, financial deregulation and review of the medical insurance system, any concrete measures after assumption of the presidency haven’t revealed. Therefore, it is difficult to comment on it now.
These information materials are prepared based on the currently available information for us and described subject to our predictions and forecasts carried out at the time of preparation.
It must be noted that what is described therein does not guarantee our future business performance and carries certain risk of misjudgment or uncertainty.
Accordingly, you are kindly requested to bear in mind that there may be a possibility of sizable divergence between the actual business performance in the future and that of our predictions or forecasts described therein.