FY2015 Results Conference Call Summary of Q&A
Described below is the summary of Q&A session with institutional investors and securities analysts at the FY2015 results conference call held on May 20, 2016.
Regarding FY2016 projections at Tokio Marine & Nichido (“TMNF”), underwriting profit is projected to increase by approximately 30billion yen YoY excluding net provisions for catastrophe loss reserves, net incurred losses relating to natural catastrophes and the effect of FX rate. What are the remaining factors for the increase?
Major factors for the increase are i) the reversal effect of large losses in “other lines” in FY2015 and ii) the reversal effect of an increase in commissions due to policy review by customers before the product revisions in fire in FY2015. In addition, in fire, a decrease in commission due to shortening of the insurance term also works as a factor to push up profit in FY2016. In auto, although the reversal effect of less snowfalls in FY2015 are factored in the FY2016 projections as a negative factor for profit, its impact on profit/loss is assumed to be offset by the effect of revenue growth associated with the increase in the number of policies.
Due to a lowering of the provision rate for catastrophe loss reserves, I guess provision for catastrophe loss reserves will be reduced by approximately from 50 to 60 billion yen in FY2016. How much do you project its impact for FY2017?
We are not thinking of changing the provision rate again for the present. Therefore, it will not work as a profit increasing factor in FY2017.
How much is the capital gain on the sales of shares of life insurance business in China? Also please let us know whether the capital gain associated with this deal is excluded from FY2015 adjusted net income due to the new definition effective from FY2016. In addition, is there any change in adjusted net income for past fiscal years which is referred as the source of dividends?
Capital gain for the Group total on the sales of the life insurance business in China is approximately 35.0 billion yen before tax basis. Approximately 28.0 billions yen after tax basis is included in adjusted net income in FY2015. We have no plan of revising adjusted net income in past fiscal years.
Is my understanding correct that the dividend payout ratio for FY2015 is approximately 37%?
Actually, the payout ratio for FY2015 is approximately 38%.
Regarding FY2015 net income attributable to owners of the parent, it was pushed up from 220 billion yen announced in FY2015 revised projections. Is my understanding correct that the major factors for the increase are i) an increase in gains on sales of equities, ii) gains on interest rate swaps, and iii) less natural catastrophe losses overseas than projected? In addition, are these factors normalized in FY2016 projections?
Your understanding is correct. Gains on sales of securities at TMNF and an improvement in gain/loss on derivatives pushed up net income attributable to owners of the parent. As you pointed out, less natural catastrophe losses overseas than projected also pushed up the net income by approximately 24.0 billion yen compared to FY2015 original projections (approximately +8.0 billion yen compared to the revised projections). As they are temporary factors in FY2015, FY2016 projections is based on the economic environment as of the end of Mar. 2016 and natural catastrophes are assumed to an average annual level.
The degree of decrease in MCEV at Tokio Marine & Nichido Life (“TMNL”) is larger than other companies. Is this due to some kind of difference in calculation method? Or is it because TMNL has a higher portion of whole life in the product composition?
It is quite difficult to answer your question regarding the comparison with other companies because we do not know their product composition or calculation model. For your information, calculation method of MCEV at TMNL has not changed.
What is the major factor of a decrease in gains on sales of securities at TMNF in FY2016 projections? In addition, while it is quite understandable that one of the factors for a decrease in interest income is a decrease in dividends from foreign stocks, how about the effects of negative interest rates in Japan?
Regarding gains/losses on sales of securities, the reversal effect of the gains on sales of insurance business in China are factored in FY2016 projections. Besides, the effect of decline in stock price relative to FY2015 is also factored in as a decrease in gains on sales of business-related equities since its gains are calculated based on Nikkei Stock Average at the end of Mar. 2016.
Major factor for a decrease in dividends from foreign stocks is the reversal effect of an increase in dividends from overseas subsidiaries in FY2015. Similarly, a decrease in dividends from domestic stocks partly reflects a decrease in dividends from subsidiaries. The impact of negative interest rates is limited to several hundred millions of yen as its effect is limited to newly purchased bonds.
In FY2016 projections at Philadelphia, in which I guess that an average annual level of natural catastrophe losses are assumed, is the effect of recent hail storms and severe storms in Texas factored in its FY2016 projections?
As for natural catastrophe losses overseas, we project approximately 47.0 billion yen. Regarding the natural disasters in Texas, we do not plan to revise the projections for the time being because it has not caused large losses so far.
How much synergy do you project with HCC?
We have just started initiatives for creating synergy since this FY2016 in a full-fledged scale. Specifically, we project revenue synergy, investment synergy and cost synergy, etc. Although some of them are factored in FY2016 projections, we need some more time to present specific figures.
How much loss do you project from the earthquake in Kumamoto?
I would like to explain about TMNF, as it will have the largest impact from the earthquake among the Group companies. In its FY2016 projections, 45.0 billion yen is projected for natural catastrophe losses and this number includes the effect of earthquake in Kumamoto. At present, approximately 5.0 billion yen of losses is projected for corporate lines of business. Profit and loss of residential earthquake insurance is projected to have no impact on our profit and loss since net claims paid will be offset by the amount taken-down from reserves.
Value of new business at TMNL as of the end of FY2015 stands at 60.3 billion yen. Under the current economic environment where interest rates are declining, will TMNL be able to generate the same level of new business value going forward?
In FY2016 projections of Business Units Profits (increase in MCEV), value of new business is projected based on the assumption that the interest rate level at the end of Mar. 2016 will continue and we project a positive value of new business in FY2016.
What is your projection for E/I loss ratio (excluding impact of natural catastrophes) in auto for FY2016? In addition, how much do you project for the sales of business-related equities?
FY2016 projections for E/I loss ratio in auto excluding impact of natural catastrophes is 60.5%. As for the sales of business-related equities, we project to sell 100.0 billion yen of worth.
While your policy on shareholder return sets target payout ratio of above 35% of average adjusted net income, I guess that payout ratio for FY2016 projections is just about 35%. Do you have any idea of share repurchases when your business results should outperform FY2016 projections?
Adjusted net income in FY2016 projections is 388.0 billion yen. Payout ratio to average adjusted net income based on this projections is approximately 35.1%. As for share repurchases, considering factors such as future natural catastrophes as well as fluctuations in financial market due to additional monetary easing measures by the Bank of Japan, etc., we did not make an announcement of it in the timing of FY2015 earnings release. Going forward, profit contribution from existing businesses, progress of the sales of business-related equities and contribution from HCC are projected. As such, our policy on share repurchase stays unchanged as before to conduct share repurchases in a flexible manner based on a comprehensive assessment of market conditions, our capital levels, business investment opportunities, and other relevant factors. As we have explained from before, our primary means of shareholder returns is dividends, which we plan to increase in a stable manner.
Do you have an idea of executing share repurchases when the outlook for the adjusted net income becomes clear?
Whether to execute share repurchases or not will not be determined solely by the consideration of profit accumulation. We conduct share repurchases in a flexible manner based on a comprehensive assessment of business investment opportunities, financial needs to prepare for changes in business environment, our ESR level and changes in market conditions, etc.
These information materials are prepared based on the currently available information for us and described subject to our predictions and forecasts carried out at the time of preparation.
It must be noted that what is described therein does not guarantee our future business performance and carries certain risk of misjudgment or uncertainty.
Accordingly, you are kindly requested to bear in mind that there may be a possibility of sizable divergence between the actual business performance in the future and that of our predictions or forecasts described therein.