FY2015 3Q Results Conference Call Summary of Q&A
Described below is the summary of Q&A session with institutional investors and securities analysts at the FY2015 3Q results conference call held on February 12, 2016.
Please explain more about underwriting results in auto at Tokio Marine & Nichido (“TMNF”). In 2Q FY2015, net incurred losses relating to accidents occurred in past fiscal years for bodily injury liability insurance in auto increased. Although the simplified method is applied when calculating the claim reserves for 3Q, are there any changes in the trend for these losses? Also, in my understanding, underwriting performance in auto excluding the impact from these net incurred losses is favorably progressing. Please elaborate on the outlook for underwriting results in auto.
There are no changes in the projections from 2Q FY2015 regarding net incurred losses relating to accidents occurred in past fiscal years for bodily injury liability insurance in auto. Also, we did not revise the FY2015 full-year projections for E/I loss ratio of 62.4% in auto. For your information, E/I loss ratio for 3Q is 62.1%, which worsened by 0.2% YoY. This is due to i) an increase in aforementioned net incurred losses relating to accidents occurred in past fiscal years for bodily injury liability insurance in auto and ii) an increase in natural catastrophes YoY, etc. despite several positive factors for the loss ratio including i) less snowfall in Dec. and ii) an increase in per-policy premiums due to rate revisions implemented in past fiscal years. Although accident frequency in 3Q decreased owning to less snowfall in Dec., considering an increase in unit repair cost, we think that the E/I loss ratio for FY2015 full-year is fairly on track with our projections.
Regarding asset management at TMNF, income from domestic bonds resulted in 21.1billion yen for 3Q FY2015. As FY2015 full-year projections is a relatively small number, below 30 billion yen, is my understanding correct that impact by the recent decrease in interest rates is limited? Also, I understand that ALM (Asset Liability Management) is the basic policy for Tokio Marine & Nichido Life’s (“TMNL”) asset management. Are there any changes in this policy?
Income from domestic bonds for 3Q FY2015 at TMNF decreased YoY, having said that, we think that the effect is not substantial. We would like to keep an eye on the market trends.
There are no changes in TMNL’s asset management policy based on ALM (Asset Liability Management).
In international insurance business, FY2015 full-year projections for net incurred losses relating to natural catastrophes is 27 billion yen (before tax). Please give us the actual figure of net incurred losses at international insurance business up to 3Q FY2015. Additionally, are there any natural catastrophes in its 4Q (Oct. – Dec.) results, which would significantly affect the results? Also, FY2015 full-year projections for ordinary profit at overseas subsidiaries is 151.5 billion yen. Comparing to this figure, the progress up to 3Q is a little behind the FY2015 full-year projections. How do you view this situation?
In FY2015 full-year projections, net incurred losses relating to natural catastrophes (before tax) is projected to be 27 billion yen. The actual results up to 3Q is 12.6 billion yen (before tax). As for net incurred losses relating to natural catastrophes for 4Q, approximately 10 billion yen is projected and no major natural catastrophes have been recognized at this moment. Regarding the full-year results for international insurance business, we are currently gathering the figures.
How much is the impact of the severe storms and floods which hit US (Midwest and South) from the end of 2015 to Jan. 2016?
We are still collecting numbers to figure out the specific amount of damage. However, we expect that it will not have significant impact on our actual results.
I suppose that the average period to maturity of JGBs in TMNF’s portfolio is approximately 6 to 7 years. If we think of TMNF taking more interest rate risk, could it be one of its options to hold more JGBs with longer period to maturity? Moreover, could it be an option for TMNF to hold more hedged foreign bonds?
From the perspective of taking more interest risk, increasing JGB with longer term to maturity might be one of the options. Having said that, currently this is not an option for TMNF as ALM is the basic policy of its asset management. Regarding hedged foreign bonds, under the current circumstances of increasing hedge costs, TMNF may increase such bonds if there is merit of investing based on the comprehensive assessment of market trends. However, we would like to keep a close eye on the market conditions before we take any action.
As for sales of business-related equities, your plan is to sell more than 100 billion yen every fiscal year. Of that total, 97 billion yen has been already sold by the end of 3Q this year. Will you stop selling business-related equities after this quarter given the fact that you have already completed the equity sales worth nearly 100 billion yen? I would like to confirm if you will continue to sell business-related equities in 4Q.
As shown in the Mid-Term Business Plan, it is our policy to sell more than 100 billion yen of business-related equities every fiscal year. We have steadily sold a total amount of approximately 97billion yen up to 3Q this year. Even after the amount sold reaches 100 billion yen, we will continue to sell more business-related equities by obtaining understanding from the investee companies.
As stock prices are declining, I suppose that your ESR is getting lower from 111% (as of the end of Sept. 2015) and closer to 100%. How do you view this situation? Are you taking any countermeasures for this?
We disclose ESR twice a year, as of the end of 2Q and 4Q. As of the end of 2Q FY2015, it was 111% reflecting the acquisition of HCC based on Nikkei average of 17,388 yen at the end of Sept. 2015. On page 15 in the presentation material titled “Tokio Marine Group FY2014 Business Plan Update” released in Nov. 2015, impact of market changes on ESR is shown. When share prices decline by 30%, ESR will become 101%. Despite favorable progress in sales of business-related equities and accumulation of profit in 3Q, considering today’s Nikkei Stock Average closing price of 14,952 yen which is approx. 15% decline from the end of Sept. 2015, simply estimated ESR level is currently somewhere in between 111% and 101%. ESR is still over 100%, which reflects our financial soundness. Therefore we are not taking specific measures although we are closely monitoring the market conditions. Moreover, impact of interest rate fluctuations on ESR is limited due to ALM. In addition, impact of foreign exchange rates is also limited as appreciation of the yen decreases net assets value of overseas subsidiaries whereas decreases risks.
Looking at the risk appetite framework of overseas financial institutions, many of them set several trigger points before reaching the lower limit of required capital so that they can take certain actions at each stage. Have you already made the decision that such actions are not necessary? Also, is my understanding correct that there are no changes in your policy on capital management and shareholder returns under the current conditions of declining share prices, etc.?
As shown on page 16 in the presentation material “FY2015 Business Plan Update”, Tokio Marine Group implements risk management in accordance with risk appetite as a normal practice. In addition to controlling ESR in a strict manner based on 99.95% VaR, we exclude restricted capital from our net asset value as well as ensure that we have sufficient capital buffer to maintain AA credit ratings. Regarding shareholder returns, we will continue to intend to conduct share repurchases in a flexible manner based on a comprehensive assessment of market conditions and our capital levels, etc., and as for dividends, there are no changes in our current policy.
How much is the impact of the snowstorm occurred in Jan. 2016 in Japan? As for the natural catastrophes overseas, I guess it will have an impact on business results for FY2016. How much are the impacts of the snowstorm which hit the eastern cost of US and the earthquake which hit southern Taiwan in Jan. 2016?
Regarding the specific amount of damage by snowstorm occurred in Jan. 2016 in Japan, we are now collecting figures. However, it will not have a significant impact on our actual results.
Regarding the specific amount of damage by snowstorm which hit the eastern cost of US and the earthquake which hit southern Taiwan, we are also currently gathering figures. Because we expect that the impact on our business results is not substantial, we believe it is unnecessary to record losses from these natural catastrophes in FY2015 results.
These information materials are prepared based on the currently available information for us and described subject to our predictions and forecasts carried out at the time of preparation.
It must be noted that what is described therein does not guarantee our future business performance and carries certain risk of misjudgment or uncertainty.
Accordingly, you are kindly requested to bear in mind that there may be a possibility of sizable divergence between the actual business performance in the future and that of our predictions or forecasts described therein.