FY2015 1Q Results Conference Call Summary of Q&A
Described below is the summary of Q&A session with institutional investors and securities analysts at the FY2015 1Q results conference call held on August 7, 2015.
Regarding TMNF’s underwriting profit excluding the impact of provision for catastrophe loss reserves, fiscal 2015 projection is 131.7 billion yen. The actual result of 1Q FY2015 result was 52.0 billion yen, recording a favorable progress compared with the projections. How do you evaluate this result?
Underwriting profit tends to be high in 1Qs due to seasonal factors such as benign snowfalls and typhoons; however, we think 1Q results were good enough to achieve the full-year projections going forward.
Regarding business unit profits in international insurance business, FY2015 projection excluding foreign exchange effects is expected to decrease to 127.0 billion yen, a decrease by 11% YoY. Having said that, 1Q FY2015 result was 37.5 billion yen, an increase of 18% YoY excluding foreign exchange effects. How do you view this result?
In 1Q FY2015, the progress of business unit profits against the full-year projections was 30% due to less natural catastrophe losses than projected, in addition to the take down of claim reserves. Excluding these special factors, the progress was 25-26% which is in line with what we projected.
How much is the loss amount from Typhoon No. 11, “Nangka”, and Typhoon No. 12, “Halola”?
We are still gathering the figures, but we suppose the amount to be several billion yen in total.
Regarding E/I basis loss ratio of auto insurance at TMNF, while the ratio was projected to worsen by 1.1 points YoY in FY2015 projections, it actually improved by 1.7 points YoY in 1Q FY2015 results. Is it fair to say that the E/I loss ratio is improving more than projected?
As you mentioned, the actual loss ratio has been better than the initial projections mainly due to a decrease in accident frequency, in addition to the effect of rate revisions in the past by which the positive impact appears strongly in 1Q results. However, since the number of reported claims is increasing in July, we would like to keep a close eye on the trend of auto loss ratio.
According to your explanation, one of factors for increased net incurred losses at TMNF was natural catastrophes which occurred mainly overseas. Please explain the details of the loss.
It was due to hailstorm in Australia.
How do you plan to finance the acquisition of HCC?
The acquisition will be financed mostly through the utilization of Tokio Marine Group's cash on hand.
- Q6. (2)
Is it possible that borrowings will increase for this acquisition?
- A6. (2)
We cannot deny the possibility; however, we plan to finance the acquisition mostly through cash on hand. Regarding the details, we would like to make decisions considering the financial needs in medium-to-long term, etc.
Did the hailstorm in Australia occur during the period from Jan. to Mar.?
It occurred in April.
Sales of business-related equities increased YoY to 34 billion yen in 1Q FY2015. With regards to the increase in sales, please give us reasons other than market value increase, if any.
We plan to sell more than 100 billion yen worth of business-related equities in FY2015. The plan has not been changed and we regard that the progress of the sales of business-related equities is in line with the initial plan.
I believe that maturity and surrender of variable annuities held by former Tokio Marine & Nichido Financial Life are increasing at Tokio Marine & Nichido Life (“TMNL”). Going forward, is there any possibility that profit will increase at TMNL due to the reversal of reserves associated with this?
Variable annuities are hedged with reinsurances; therefore, impact on profit is quite limited.
Please share with us the specific amount of net incurred losses relating to natural catastrophes at overseas subsidiaries in 1Q FY2015.
Total was approximately 6.1 billion yen due to cold waves in North America.
Regarding underwriting profit at TMNF, if you exclude the impact from natural catastrophes, exchange rates and catastrophe loss reserves, it seems that 1Q FY2015 results showed favorable progress, outperforming the full-year projections. Do you still regard the 1Q results to be in line with the projections?
In general, underwriting profit tends to be high in 1Qs due to seasonal factors. We regard 1Q FY2015 results to be in line with the initial full-year projections at this moment.
When do you plan to submit your “Corporate Governance Report?”
We have already submitted it to the Tokyo Stock Exchange today. It is also available on our website.
- Q12. (2)
How are the business-related equities described in the report?
- A12. (2)
Our policy of action on business-related equities is described as “as for business-related equities, board of directors examines risks and returns of major stocks to confirm its economic rationale annually”. The guidelines on exercise of voting rights are also shown on the report.
According to your explanation, the acquisition of HCC will be mostly financed through the utilization of cash on hand. How much liquid fund is available for the acquisition? And which item(s) on the balance sheet do you refer as the source of cash on hand?
As we explained in the announcement of the acquisition of HCC, the acquisition price of 940 billion yen (1USD=120JPY) is planned to be financed mostly through the utilization of Group’s cash on hand including US dollar-denominated funds at overseas subsidiaries. There will be no equity financing. Regarding your second question, we cannot tell you specific items on B/S and amounts for those we regard as “cash on hand” since it is hard to identify clearly by B/S items. However, we would like to determine how much “cash on hand” is available while taking into consideration the liquidity of our funds which are not backing insurance liabilities.
What was the reason for the increase in expense ratio at TMNF?
Personnel expense increased due to an increase in performance-linked bonus, and non-personnel expense increased due to fresh investment for future growth. In addition to the two factors, agency commission ratio which increased by 0.1 point YoY was another factor for the increased expense ratio at TMNF.
Regarding international insurance business, you explained that there were large losses in Europe. Please share with us more details on this.
They were non-natural catastrophe losses which occurred in fire insurance, etc. There were a few losses with size totaling approximately 1 billion yen.
At TMNF, YoY increase in the number of cars for non-fleet auto insurance performed better compared to other domestic insurance companies. What is the reason behind this? In addition, YoY growth rate of in-force policies ANP at TMNL outperformed other life insurance companies as well. Do you project this trend will continue going forward?
The number of cars for non-fleet auto insurance at TMNF has been increasing steadily since FY2011. We think that this is due to the steady outcome of various growth measures we have taken mainly through streamlining the business and increasing operational efficiency under “Business Renovation Project”. In addition, the fact that the degree of rate increase by TMNF in FY2014 was relatively small compared to other insurance companies, considering an improving trend in operational efficiency, might be a reason behind the support and selection by our agents and customers.
As for TMNL, new policies ANP for individual annuities recorded strong growth rate mainly due to last-minute demand in June before the downward revision of the assumed interest rates planned in July. Excluding saving-type products, the growth rate was approximately 6%. TMNL newly launched two cancer insurances in July and they have been showing favorable sales. In our full-year projections, new policies ANP excluding saving type products, was projected to increase by double digit compared to FY2014 and we think that we are making steady progress so far in line with the projections.
- Q16. (2)
Other insurance companies are planning to implement downwards rate revision in auto insurance in Oct. 2015. Do you think these will have any impacts on your business after fall season?
- A16. (2)
Even after our competitors revise their premiums rate downwards, TMNF’s premiums rates level will not fall behind them. Therefore, we do not think there will be a significant impact on TMNF.
Regarding individual insurance at TMNL, while policy amount of in-force policies increased, that of new policies decreased by 8.1% YoY. In addition, although new policies ANP increased by 3.4% YoY, it seems that the growth rate is declining compared to 1Q FY2014. What is the reason for these?
At TMNL, we are planning to limit the sales of saving-type products this year. As a result, new-policies ANP for “whole life with long-term discounts” decreased to approximately 70% level YoY. New policies ANP excluding saving-type products which are individual annuities and “whole life with long-term discounts”, increased by 6.7% YoY. Although this is a little behind the initial projections, sales of newly released 2 cancer insurance products is favorable and we aim for continued revenue growth going forward.
These information materials are prepared based on the currently available information for us and described subject to our predictions and forecasts carried out at the time of preparation.
It must be noted that what is described therein does not guarantee our future business performance and carries certain risk of misjudgment or uncertainty.
Accordingly, you are kindly requested to bear in mind that there may be a possibility of sizable divergence between the actual business performance in the future and that of our predictions or forecasts described therein.